This article is part of a multi-part series designed to help business leaders navigate the evolving tariff landscape with strategic clarity and operational resilience.
Let’s talk about those recent China and UK trade announcements for a minute. If you’re thinking, “Great, tensions are cooling down,” I’d suggest pumping the brakes.
What we’re really seeing? Classic strategic poker. The U.S. is still methodically decoupling from China while carefully repositioning key relationships. This isn’t the end of anything—it’s the middle innings. And smart businesses should be sharpening their playbooks, not relaxing.
Here’s the thing: If you want to know where tariffs are heading, you need to understand where they’ve been. And trust me, this isn’t your typical history lesson. These patterns have been repeating for over 200 years—and they’re about to impact your bottom line.
When Tariffs Were Everything
Picture this: It’s 1789, George Washington has barely unpacked his presidential desk, and what’s one of the first things Congress does? Passes a tariff act. For the next century, tariffs kept the lights on in Washington—making up 90% of federal revenue.
But here’s where it gets relevant to your supply chain: the country was split. Northern manufacturers loved tariffs (protection from foreign competition), while Southern farmers hated them (higher prices for equipment). Sound familiar? Today’s tech sector vs. traditional manufacturers, anyone?
The Disaster Everyone Should Remember
Let me tell you about the mother of all tariff disasters: Smoot-Hawley, 1930. Congress thought they were protecting American jobs during the Great Depression. Instead, they triggered an economic catastrophe:
- U.S. imports crashed 66%
- Exports nosedived 61%
- Trading partners hit back with revenge tariffs
- The Depression got deeper and nastier
The lesson? When governments try to “protect” businesses with extreme tariffs, they often end up strangling the very companies they’re trying to save.
The Great Trade Opening
After World War II, the U.S. did a complete 180—shifting from a fortress mentality to “let’s trade with everyone.”
- GATT
- NAFTA
- Global tariff reductions
By the 1970s, average tariffs dropped from highs of 40–50% to under 10%. For decades, this was the playbook: lower barriers, expand markets, optimize globally. Many business leaders built entire careers in that environment.
Welcome to the New (Old) Normal
Now? We’re back in protectionist territory—steel tariffs, China standoffs, and reshoring pressures.
But this isn’t just a temporary policy mood swing. It’s a structural shift. We’re seeing the return of regional blocs, strategic industries, and tariffs as geopolitical tools.
And the companies that thrive will be the ones that recognize we’re not going back to the “good old days” of stable trade. We’re headed into a new era that looks a lot more like the late 1800s—with sharper edges.
Your Playbook Starts Here
So what should supply chain leaders do? Start by accepting that the pendulum has swung. Then build flexibility into your operations that can handle what comes next. Because if history teaches us anything, it’s this: Trade policy loves to surprise businesses that get too comfortable.
