As of April 2, 2026, CBP has confirmed it is on track to begin accepting Phase 1 CAPE Declarations on April 20.
That is less than three weeks away.
The conversation is still focused on the Court’s ruling.
But the real issue now is timing, sequencing, and risk.
And the dollar impact may be front-end loaded.
The $120 Billion Dynamic
Approximately:
- 330,000 importers paid IEEPA duties
- Roughly 53 million entries are implicated
- Approximately $166 billion was collected
If high-volume importers move quickly, the first wave of CAPE filings could approach $120 billion.
Participation by company count may be modest.
Participation by dollar value will likely be concentrated and front-end loaded.
The largest, most sophisticated importers are positioned to move first.
Which means April matters.
What Phase 1 (April 20) Actually Covers
Phase 1 will:
- Accept entries liquidated within the last 80 days
- Allow up to 45 days for CBP review and reliquidation
- Exclude reconciliation entries (Type 09)
- Exclude drawback-designated entries
- Exclude entries with open protests
- Exclude certain AD/CVD entries pending under 19 U.S.C. §1504(d)
- Exclude finally liquidated entries outside the 80-day window
Future phases are expected to address reconciliation, drawback, complex interest, and finally liquidated entries…but timelines are not yet defined.
The Protest Question
The Court expanded relief beyond unliquidated entries and referenced finally liquidated entries, even outside the 180-day protest period.
However, the mechanics for reliquidation of those entries are not yet operational.
That is why the Court reminded importers that protest remedies remain available.
This does not mean everyone must file protests.
It means statutory deadlines still exist.
If you have entries:
- Within 180 days of liquidation
- Not eligible for Phase 1
- At risk of aging out before a future phase launches
…you need a preservation strategy.
This is about timing risk…not legal disagreement.
Why Some Companies Are Not Filing Immediately
This part is not being discussed enough.
Some importers are deliberately pausing.
Not because the refund is immaterial.
But because filing at scale reopens millions of entry lines.
And that creates audit exposure.
Submitting a CAPE Declaration is a data event.
CBP is increasingly analytics-driven.
For some organizations, the refund opportunity forces a broader question:
Are we audit ready?
What an Audit Risk Assessment Actually Looks Like
A real audit assessment is not theoretical. It includes:
Classification Consistency
- Has the same product been classified differently across ports or time periods?
- Were classification changes documented and supported?
- Do rulings align with actual entry practice?
Valuation Alignment
- Does declared customs value align with transfer pricing policy?
- Were assists, royalties, or post-importation adjustments handled correctly?
- Were retroactive pricing adjustments disclosed properly?
Prior Corrections
- Were PSCs and prior disclosures timely and complete?
- Are there unresolved CF28/CF29 patterns?
AD/CVD Exposure
- Are entries properly flagged?
- Were scope rulings relied upon?
- Is there risk of retroactive duty assessment?
Reconciliation & Drawback Controls
- Are reconciliation flags consistent with actual post-entry adjustments?
- Is drawback tied cleanly to underlying entry data?
Documentation & Internal Controls
- Can you produce support for classification and valuation decisions within statutory timeframes?
- Is there centralized governance, or broker-by-broker variability?
For some companies, the refund is clearly worth the filing.
For others, the better first step is to remediate before triggering large-scale data visibility.
Speed is not always strategy.
Timing Now Determines Leverage
Today is April 2.
Phase 1 opens April 20.
The window to:
- Map your entry universe
- Segment by 80-day eligibility
- Identify 180-day protest exposure
- Quantify refund value
- Assess audit posture
…is measured in days.
If you do not have your entries categorized by liquidation date and exclusion status, you are operating without full visibility.
And in this environment, visibility equals leverage.
This Is Bigger Than IEEPA
Yes, the first wave could approach $120 billion.
But what this moment really reveals is whether your organization has:
- Real-time liquidation visibility
- Centralized classification governance
- Alignment between trade, tax, and treasury
- Active statutory deadline monitoring
- A documented tariff mitigation strategy
Trade volatility is structural.
IEEPA is the catalyst — not the endpoint.
What To Do Before April 20
Before Phase 1 goes live, leadership should have:
- A quantified refund exposure model
- A Phase 1 eligibility segmentation
- A protest preservation analysis
- A documented file / stage / wait framework
- A formal audit risk assessment
- ACE/ACH refund enrollment confirmed
Uploading into CAPE is operational.
Sequencing filings, preserving rights, and managing audit exposure is executive decision-making.
Final Thought
April 20 is not just a portal launch.
It is a capital event.
For some companies, it is a balance sheet recovery.
For others, it is a compliance stress test.
If you want to walk through your exposure model, protest timing, or audit readiness before Phase 1 opens, call me.
After deadlines pass, optionality narrows…and in this environment, optionality is leverage.
