Three major trade deadlines this week. Two delivered radio silence. One produced a 90-minute phone call that everyone’s calling “positive” while meaning completely different things.
Here’s what really happened—and what it means for your supply chain.
Act 1: The Silent Treatment
Wednesday’s Ultimatum Met with Crickets
The Trump administration set a hard deadline: Countries had until Wednesday (June 5) to submit their “best offers” on trade negotiations. The ask was comprehensive—tariff proposals, purchase commitments for U.S. goods, plans to eliminate non-tariff barriers, plus commitments on digital trade and economic security.
The response? Deafening silence.
No major announcements. No fanfare about breakthrough proposals. The EU reportedly didn’t even receive the letter. After weeks of tough talk about dozens of countries “rushing to make deals,” we got… nothing public.
What This Silence Actually Means:
- Countries are calling Trump’s bluff on the July 8 deadline
- Partners are waiting to see how court challenges play out before committing
- The complexity of real trade deals doesn’t fit artificial political timelines
The only concrete action? Steel and aluminum tariffs still doubled to 50% as scheduled, hitting Canada (the top supplier) especially hard.
Act 2: The Diplomatic Dance
The Trump-Xi Call: “Very Positive” Means Very Different Things
Thursday brought the long-awaited phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping—their first confirmed conversation since Trump returned to office. Both sides rushed to claim victory, which tells you everything about how little was actually resolved.
Trump’s version: “Very positive conclusion… We’re in very good shape with China and the trade deal… no longer any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products.”
Xi’s version: The U.S. should “back down from trade measures that roiled the global economy” and “remove the negative measures taken against China.”
They agreed to resume trade talks and exchange state visits. But when both sides call the same 90-minute conversation “very positive” while making opposite demands, that’s not progress—that’s diplomatic theater.
Reality Check from the Experts: Craig Singleton from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies nailed it: The call “simply paused escalation on trade” but “didn’t resolve core tensions.” His warning? “We’re likely one competitive action away from further confrontation.”
Act 3: The Clock Keeps Ticking
32 Days and Counting
Here’s what your CFO needs to know: We’re 32 days away from July 8, when Trump’s 90-day tariff pause expires. After this week’s non-developments, what are the odds of meaningful deals by then?
The Scorecard:
- ✅ UK: Limited framework deal (keeps 10% baseline tariff)
- 🤷 EU: “Constructive talks” but no letter received
- 🤷 India: Multiple phases discussed, no completion
- 🤷 Japan: Active negotiations, no breakthrough
- ⏸️ China: 90-day Geneva truce expires in August
Legal Wild Card: The appeals court deadline is June 9—Monday. If Trump’s tariff authority gets struck down, everything changes. If it doesn’t, we’re back to the July 8 cliff.
The Business Reality
Stop Planning Around Political Optimism
The pattern is unmistakable: Lots of diplomatic activity, very little concrete progress. Current economic reality shows consumers facing a 15.6% average effective tariff rate—the highest since 1937—with an average household impact of $2,500 annually.
For Supply Chain Leaders:
- Don’t bank on deals materializing by July 8. Only the UK has a framework, and even that maintains significant tariffs.
- Prepare for tariff escalation as the most likely scenario. The silence after Wednesday’s deadline suggests countries aren’t racing to Trump’s terms.
- Hedge against July volatility. When diplomatic “wins” mask fundamental disagreements, businesses get caught in the crossfire.
Three Questions for Your Monday Morning:
- Are your July inventory decisions factoring in full tariff restoration?
- What’s your contingency plan if the Geneva deal with China expires in August?
- How are you explaining tariff cost increases to customers who’ve heard “deals are imminent” for months?
The Bottom Line: When both the U.S. and China call the same conversation “very positive” while making opposite demands, when the EU doesn’t receive ultimatum letters, and when steel tariffs double right on schedule despite all the “progress”—the message is clear.
Political timelines and business reality operate on different clocks.
Plan accordingly.
